Thursday, December 22, 2005

Aaron shares this story from the online poker world:

I was in a pot-limit Omaha tournament on ParadisePoker.com last
night. $15 buy in, 120 or so people playing. Top 20 pay; the winner gets
around $900, second around $500, etc., so not too bad, either. Plus, I love
Omaha. After the first break, one hour in, there are 40 players left. I’m
in sixth with around 10,000 chips. With 25 players to go, I’m up to 3rd
with almost 12,000, but the average chip count is around 8,000 so the chips
are all over the place. Eventually we make it to the top 20 and three or
four hands in, I’m dealt
AdQs10c9c
(As I tell this story, I can’t remember the exact suits but I do remember remember the value and whether they were suited, so it’s basically accurate). Nice starter. I’m in pretty good position, fourth after the blinds; the three guys before me just call, and I’ve seen that you can buy a lot of pots at this table anyway, so I raise 1000. Two guys after me call but they don’t raise so I feel prety good. Everybody else folds. Three players to the flop.
The flop comes
Ac10dQc
Obviously, great flop for me—top two pair and draws all over the place.
I’m first to act and I bet 2000. The next guy folds immediately, and the
only other player on the table calls. I figure he’s either slow-playing the
straight or hoping for a draw. I’ve got a lot of outs here, so I’m not too
worried. The next card that comes is
Kh
Damn. One of the few cards that scares me. No help for either of my flush possiblities, plus, I figure, there’s a good chance guy’s got a straight now. With only the river left, I show major weakness and check. The other guy only bets 500, though, so I make a small raise of 500, figuring he should have sensed my weakness and he’ll either a) re-raise big and then I’ll know he got the straight and I have to decide whether or not to go for a draw, or b) he’ll just call and I’ll know he doesn’t have anything. Now, this may seem like a strange way to go about it, but a lot of it is based on his betting patterns leading up to this hand—he hasn’t slow-played much of anything. Basically, I’ve got a solid read that if he has the straight, when I put that small raise on him, he’ll come back big over the top of me.
I figured it was worth a shot, and it turned out in the end that I was
right—I put the small re-raise on him, he only called it, and when the
hand was over, his hole cards were
Ks and 9h,8s,6c
so all he had was a pair of Kings and an inside straight draw. So, in other words, he called me pre-flop with nothing, he called a big bet (2000) after that big flop with absolutely nothing except an inside straight-draw, and then he raised and called my -re-raise with that inside-straight draw and a pair of Kings, knowing there was an Ace on the board and I ws bound to have one with all the betting I’d done pre-flop and after the flop. Of course, I wouldn’t be telling this story if I’d won this hand, but of course the river is Kd. I lost half my stack to this guy in the act of confirming that he had no idea what he was doing. To make matters worse, I lost the rest of my stack to him on the next hand, when I flopped Jacks full of sevens and he drew out four of a kind (fives). Unbelievable. I ended up 20th place, for a whopping take of $18.57.

Now, this is one of those rare hands where it’s easy to see what Aaron’s mistake was theoretically, but if you look at what his opponent was actually holding, you can see that Aaron’s move wasn’t so bad after all. By checking on the turn, and then raising, he was showing some weakness to his opponent, which in a sense was a good thing, because Aaron was not all that weak. By betting initially however, Aaron might have forced his opponent out of the hand, with his relatively weak pair of kings (after all, this was Omaha and there was an ace on the board.) On the other hand, by check-raising (especially by this amount), Aaron pretty much put out a sign that said, “I am testing you.” In reality, this was a good play, except that (as he pointed out in a comment to me) he didn’t raise enough. It’s possible that the opponent would have called a raise in any amount, especially being this far into the hand in the first place, but the 500 bet was not enough to give the opponent even an option of folding. At this point, he obviously has pot odds to call, because he can’t put Aaron on anything higher than a straight, and that's damned unlikely, given the check, and the size of the raise. However, Aaron is right that this guy seems to be a calling station, since we eventually got to see what he called with on the flop, but if Aaron had raised by a more considerable amount, it would have seemed like a more thoughtful play, and he might have forced his opponent out. Check-raising five hundred to a five hundred bet almost seems more like an afterthought than a meaningful play. By betting about three thousand, the pot odds would have been significantly lower, and the opponent might have at least felt the jaws of the trap (which is a big part of the reason for the check raise, the psychological pressure). This is all theoretical, though, because if Aaron had known exactly what cards his opponent was holding, he definitely would have wanted to bet no more than (and exactly as much as) his opponent would call. Unfortunately, if everything came out the way it should most often come out, we wouldn’t have to shuffle so much. The guy got his king, and unfortunately, it was not the king of clubs. His opponent won on a 39 to 1 shot, and let’s hope he keeps playing that way all his life.

In basic journal news, I am down, lately, mostly because I played in the fifty dollar tournament at Amvets and have yet to recoup that loss. I did not come in the money. The night before, however, I did win half my buy-in. Congratulations to Aaron and Anthony, however for doing very well. Since then, I believe I have lost one twenty dollar tournament outright, won twenty or thirty dollars in a cash game, came in second in another tournament (making ten dollars) and lost another ten dollar tournament. The long and the short of it is that I’m about ten down altogether since I updated last. Poker tomorrow at my house, maybe I can get back in the black.

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