Sorry for the lack of updates. Here's a little something I posted to the 2+2 forum, and I thought it would save time if I just copied and pasted it. It's essentially just a hand analysis, and a question at the end. I'd welcome any input here too.
1-2 NL with minimum buy-in 50, average buy in 100-150. Average stack is about 200, I have about 250.
I'm in Big Blind with 79o. Four limpers including SB, I check.
Flop is 793 rainbow. I bet 50, two callers, incl. SB, and both have me covered.
Turn is 8. I bet 50, and both callers call again. River is T, still no flushes, but 789T on the board. First caller bets 100. SB calls. I fold.
SB shows J5, bettor mucks.
This is the first hand I ever put $100 into and then folded. I think it's obvious that the SB sucked out in a big way and he had -EV for his first two calls. The question I have is this. Should I have bet all in on the turn when the 8 fell taking the chance someone already had TJ and would call, just to make sure these highly courageous guys would fold something like J5 or Tx?
Now I've speculated quite a bit as to what that other bettor had that he could throw in a hundred and then fold. My guess is he had either 78, or A9, or Tx, maybe T8. He's a pretty good player though. I think from his position, being a fairly good player, he'd have had a hard time calling 50 with a 78 and only 60 in the pot. Middle pair and a back-door straight draw doesn't seem like enough. That pretty much eliminates everything but T8 and A9. Even though he isn't bad, it's a loose table and I could see him calling the blinds with a T8 in early position. If I had raised all in on the turn, I think he would have folded with third pair and open-ended, but I'm not sure. When I add in the possibility I was betting into a pat hand, I have to think I made the correct play, even though it turned out to be a big loser for me. What do you think?
The 2+2 guys seem to think I overbet the flop too severely, but with the table I had, I was likely to get a call from almost any 9 with a J or better kicker. They think that betting 5X pot on the flop and then only .3125X the flop on the turn was a critical error, but as I said, not going all-in on the turn was the debatable play. I certainly can't check the turn, for fear of giving the free card. I bet for value, and what I wanted to invest. Should I have doubled my bet and made it a hundred to go? That would have been .625X pot. I think if J5 finds it necessary to call 50, he'll call 100 as well. If I had it to do over, I'd have bet 100.
1-2 NL with minimum buy-in 50, average buy in 100-150. Average stack is about 200, I have about 250.
I'm in Big Blind with 79o. Four limpers including SB, I check.
Flop is 793 rainbow. I bet 50, two callers, incl. SB, and both have me covered.
Turn is 8. I bet 50, and both callers call again. River is T, still no flushes, but 789T on the board. First caller bets 100. SB calls. I fold.
SB shows J5, bettor mucks.
This is the first hand I ever put $100 into and then folded. I think it's obvious that the SB sucked out in a big way and he had -EV for his first two calls. The question I have is this. Should I have bet all in on the turn when the 8 fell taking the chance someone already had TJ and would call, just to make sure these highly courageous guys would fold something like J5 or Tx?
Now I've speculated quite a bit as to what that other bettor had that he could throw in a hundred and then fold. My guess is he had either 78, or A9, or Tx, maybe T8. He's a pretty good player though. I think from his position, being a fairly good player, he'd have had a hard time calling 50 with a 78 and only 60 in the pot. Middle pair and a back-door straight draw doesn't seem like enough. That pretty much eliminates everything but T8 and A9. Even though he isn't bad, it's a loose table and I could see him calling the blinds with a T8 in early position. If I had raised all in on the turn, I think he would have folded with third pair and open-ended, but I'm not sure. When I add in the possibility I was betting into a pat hand, I have to think I made the correct play, even though it turned out to be a big loser for me. What do you think?
The 2+2 guys seem to think I overbet the flop too severely, but with the table I had, I was likely to get a call from almost any 9 with a J or better kicker. They think that betting 5X pot on the flop and then only .3125X the flop on the turn was a critical error, but as I said, not going all-in on the turn was the debatable play. I certainly can't check the turn, for fear of giving the free card. I bet for value, and what I wanted to invest. Should I have doubled my bet and made it a hundred to go? That would have been .625X pot. I think if J5 finds it necessary to call 50, he'll call 100 as well. If I had it to do over, I'd have bet 100.
posted by Brinton at 10:15 AM
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